The 28th edition of the Conference of the Parties (COP), hosted by the United Arab Emirates, is all set to begin this week. Since the first COP in 1995, several efforts have been made to “save the world” from the impending climate crisis. Nevertheless, scientists have warned us about the rising global temperatures and CO2 levels since before these UN conferences began. From Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius who claimed in 1896 that burning fossil fuels increases global warming to American scientist James Hansen who testified before the US Congress in 1988 regarding the rising temperatures, the only consistent point about the climate crisis have been the continuous warnings and calls to action from the scientific community and climate activists.
Opening plenary of COP1 in Berlin, 1995. Source: Digital Archive, UN Climate Change.
It was in 1992 that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was formed to combat climate change and limit the average global temperature rise. It took effect in 1994. The very next year the first Conference of the Parties (COP), which is the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC, took place in Berlin. Two years later in 1997, at COP3 held in Japan, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted by the parties. By mandating industrialised nations and economies in transition to restrict and minimise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with set individual targets, the Kyoto Protocol operationalised the UNFCCC. The protocol entered into force in 2005, eight years after its adoption.
COP3 at Kyoto, Japan, 1997. Source: UNFCCC Archival Holdings.
In 2007, at COP13 held in Bali, Indonesia, the parties agreed on a new binding agreement; hence the Bali Roadmap was born. The Bali Action Plan, which laid out the framework for a fresh round of negotiations to address climate change, was part of the Roadmap. The Roadmap was supposed to lead to a more concrete agreement on climate action at COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark. But things took a U-turn at COP15 due to the insistence of developing nations on their right to expand their economies and the reluctance of many wealthier nations to embrace stringent targets for reducing emissions. Ultimately world leaders agreed upon the Copenhagen Accord with no legally binding obligations on emission reduction, unlike the Kyoto Protocol.
The COPs that followed sought to carry out the goals set forth by the Copenhagen Accord. The Green Climate Fund, which attempts to raise capital for low-emission and climate-resilient development, was created at COP16 in Cancun, Mexico. At COP17 in Durban, South Africa, a decision to begin discussions for a new legal instrument that would involve all major emitters was launched. Next year in Doha, Qatar, at COP18, Articles 20 and 21 of the Kyoto Protocol were amended and extended until 2020. At COP20 in Lima, Peru, all the parties agreed to create public commitments to cut emissions, which laid the path to the Paris Agreement.
COP21 in 2015 set the stage for the historic Paris Agreement which is a legally binding climate change treaty adopted by 196 parties of the COP. It replaced the Kyoto Protocol and entered into force in 2016. The main goal of the agreement is to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C above the pre-industrial level. In order for this to happen, greenhouse gas emissions must peak no later than 2025 and then drop by 43% by 2030. The Paris Agreement is based on a five-year cycle where the countries submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The steps taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and resilience plans to combat climate change are included in the national plans. Countries have been submitting their national climate action plans since 2020.
Leaders celebrate the adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 in Paris, France. Source: UN Photo/ Mark Garten.
At COP22 in Morocco, the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action was established. This initiative facilitates cooperation between governments, cities, regions, companies, and investors that need to take action on climate change in order to support the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Two years later at COP24 in Poland, the Katowice Climate Package also known as the Paris Rulebook was announced. It has details on how to make the Paris Agreement operational. After missing a conference in 2020 due to covid COP26 was held in Glasgow, Scotland, in 2021. The Glasgow Climate Pact with the intention of making the 2020s a decade of climate action was adopted at this conference. Furthermore, COP27 held last year at Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt emphasised the need to put additional effort into tackling the climate crisis and agreed to establish a loss and damage fund.
What to expect at COP28?
Leaders at the closing of Pre-COP prior to COP28. Source: COP28uaeofficial Instagram page.
COP28 will be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 30 November to 12 December. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber who is also the minister of Industry and Advanced Technology for the UAE and the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) will be the President of COP28, a decision seen as controversial by many. The four key areas of focus of COP28 will be Fast-tracking energy transition and slashing emissions before 2030, Fixing climate finance, Nature, people, lives, and livelihoods, and Full Inclusivity.
One of the highlights of COP28 will be the first-ever Global Stocktake. Countries and stakeholders participate in the global stocktake process to determine where they are and aren’t making progress toward accomplishing the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. The next set of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are to be submitted by 2025 as part of the Paris Agreement, will be decided during the global stocktake discussions. Another focus of COP28 is the first-of-its–kind, Loss and Damage fund. The decision to create and establish the fund was announced during COP27. It is intended to provide financial assistance to countries that are most affected and at the risk of climate change. A settlement on phasing out fossil fuels will be another point of interest at COP28 since the parties could not reach a concrete agreement at COP27. This year the European Union will push for a global deal to phase out fossil fuels. In a resolution passed in the EU parliament, 462 votes were in favour of negotiating the deal. However, it is unclear if the topic will be on the agenda at the conference, despite pressure from the global community. At COP28, France and Kenya plan to establish an international taxation task force to advocate for new levies to increase funding for climate action. The taskforce intends to take into account a wide range of measures, such as taxes on foreign trade, aviation, financial activities, and fossil fuels.
The fact that the UN climate conference is happening in the UAE, one of the largest oil and petroleum exporting countries in the world, and the President of COP28 is the CEO of the state oil company, is in itself a conflict of interest and has garnered negative attention for this year’s COP. After Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber’s appointment as COP28 president, more than 100 lawyers from the EU and the US wrote a joint letter addressing the UN, the President of the European Commission, and the US President to remove him from the position. However, many leaders, including the head of the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, have supported his appointment claiming his decades–long experience in the energy industry makes him apt for the role. With few days left for the conference to begin, campaigns encouraging to boycott the event have also gained momentum.
COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Source: COP28uaeofficial Instagram page.
COP28 will also make history as the first UN climate gathering attended by the pope. Pope Francis will address the climate conference and hold bilateral meetings. King Charles III, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, US climate envoy John Kerry, Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua, etc. are some of the big names attending COP28. Apart from world leaders, representatives of environmental groups, think tanks, and business organisations will also participate in the conference.
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